John McCain's VP List: The pros and cons from a conservative's point of view

Now that the race is officially on (OK, Keyes hasn't dropped out yet, but he can't win anyway), John McCain has the sticky business of picking a vice president. This is extremely important, especially this year because of his age. Even if he's healthy, we want a strong VP just in case. Additionally, the VP usually ends up becoming the presidential nominee for his party.

Likeliess

Charlie Crist

At first blush, Crist is the perfect candidate. He's young. He's a strong McCain fan, helping Mac carry the state in the primary. And he'll definitely help McCain carry the 27 electoral votes in Florida. He's also fairly conservative. He's pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, and has an A+ from the NRA. He's supported a flat or sales tax since 1998. And he's fairly anti-tax. But there are a few things that you need to realize about Crist. First of all, he has a messy private life. He's had a lot of links to women, and some argue that he's homosexual. That's really going to go over well with evangelicals, many of whom don't like McCain already. Additionally, he is a maverick on two issues: health care and the environment. Since McCain's already fairly green, conservatives aren't going to like Crist's pro-cap emissions ideas. Finally, there's the question of whether McCain needs Crist. Chances are, Crist will campaign for McCain even if he doesn't get the spot. And between the huge number of retirees in Florida, the fact that the Democrats threw Florida out of the DNC, and the fact that Florida was red enough to vote in a conservative like Crist, McCain may already have Florida in the bag.

My thoughts: Crist is still a strong pick, Florida's GOP leaning notwithstanding.

Mike Huckabee

If John McCain is worried about holding the south, he needs not to look farther than Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor from Hope is a strong social conservative, a former pastor, and was the biggest surprise in the primaries. He attracted huge support among evangelical and blue collar workers with his social conservatism and economic populism. And Huckabee would certainly be able to portray Obama as an elite (Huckabee was the first in his family to go to college, Ouachita Baptist University, while Obama attended Columbia and Harvard), thanks to his strong support among blue collars. But Huckabee's economic populism is a real problem among fiscal conservatives, most of whom can't stand the preacher. Let's also not forget that his Fair Tax would encourage less spending, something we definitely don't need during a possible recession/depression. And the clincher for me? McCain is leading by a lot in every southern state except the Carolinas. Would you rather have them or Florida? I'll take Florida.

My thoughts: Huckabee just doesn't bring enough to the table and will alienate more than he reconciles.

Tim Pawlenty

Pawlenty is one of the big front-runners in the race. But he has quite a few things going against him. He's unknown outside of Minnesota, while Huckabee and Romney both ran for president. He's also not the most useful guy in the veep sweepstakes. He definitely won't win any ideological group to McCain's standard. Also, how do we know that he'll even swing his own state? Romney destroyed McCain, even though Pawlenty vainly attempted to persuade voters to go out for Mac. So why's he even up for the pick? No idea, except that he's young and was chairman of the exploratory committee for McCain.

My thoughts: Pawlenty is only a frontrunner because someone thought he'd be a good candidate. He won't be. McCain will make a mistake if he picks Pawlenty.

Mitt Romney

Romney was the second place winner in the primaries, and often the second place winner gets the second highest slot. But here's the thing. McCain's biggest asset in defeating Obama will be in calling him an "elitist". If you thought Obama was elitist, you should see Romney. He's slick, a Harvard man, and prefers PowerPoint to normal presentations. He's also not popular with the evangelicals, being a Mormon. On the flip side, he could very well carry Michigan, a very handy state indeed.

My thoughts: Romney doens't help McCain at all. McCain is pretty fiscally conservative, which is Romney's strong point. And Michigan won't help if Romney alienates some blue collar states.

Mark Sanford

Sanford's mostly on the list because he has impeccable conservative credentials. He's socially conservative, fiscally conservative, and foreignly conservative. His biggest controversy? Missing a budget debate. He has a 92 rating from the American Conservative Union. Heck, while in Congress, he was in the Liberty Caucus with Ron Paul, and even has a few Paulites supporting him. His biggest objection is that Sanford will only be able to defend the South, not go after any new states.

My thoughts: McCain needs a conservative. Sanford is a strong man. And if he's worried about the south, Sanford is a great choice.

Longshots

Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush is a great guy, but he has no chance. Why? His last name. Sure, he's one of the most popular governors in Florida history, was the first Republican to be re-elected governor, and is well loved among the minorities, but Bush has a really lousy last name. And until the country forgets about it, he has no chance.

Bobby Jindal

Bobby Jindal is the youngest governor in the United States. He was elected in 2007, after having served for four years in the House. He's pro-life, supports sales taxes over income taxes, has an A from the Gun Owners of America, and supports Creationism in schools. He has two problems. First, he's young. Really young. He has about as much experience as Obama, which is a problem if McCain wants to go after Obama on that point. Also, he's a first term governor. He was elected last year and wants to stay with his platform to clean up Louisiana. Jindal won't be vice president this year. But look for a 2012 (if McCain loses this year) or 2016 run. And that run won't be for vice president.

Condi Rice

Condi is appealing to the party, but I doubt she'll become the VP. Obama basically has the African-American vote in the bag, while she wouldn't necessarily be any more useful for getting women's votes than, say, Sarah Palin. Also, she has no experience on anything except foreign affairs. She's also got the same problem as Jeb Bush, being tainted with Jeb's brother's name. To top it off, she's gone on record as saying she wasn't interested.

Sarah Palin

Lots of women are angry about Hillary being denied the presidential slot for the Democrats. So what better way to rally them to the Republican flag than a women vice president? And what if this woman happened to be attractive? As in, a former candidate for Miss Alaska? That's the thinking behind the supporters of Sarah Palin, the two year governor of Alaska. She's down-to-earth (she eats moose burgers and rides snowmobiles), conservative (lifetime member of the NRA), and is the most popular elected official in America. Again, like Jindal, she's probably too inexperienced and would probably be better as staying as governor than vice president. But like Jindal, watch her in 2012 and 2016.

Rob Portman

The only reason Rob Portman is being considered is that he is the only Ohio Republican that has any sort of national recognition, being an ambassador and Budget Director as well as Ohio Congressman. But he's not that well known. Also, it's not like he was a popular governor or well known senator. He was just the representative of a 600,000 people district. So could he swing Ohio? I'm doubtful.

Colin Powell

Right now, Powell isn't even sure he'll vote for McCain. And Powell is also one of the most Bush-tainted politicians around. He doesn't have a lot of experience outside of foreign policy, similar to Condi. And he's quite liberal on many social views, which will hurt McCain's southern vote.

Crazies

Hillary Clinton

I can't believe I've actually heard people suggest this. They must be stark mad. If McCain wants to make the Libertarian Party the new GOP, this is the best way to go about it. Clinton is completely opposite to McCain on most of their positions. She might bring in a few blue collar states, but she'll lose the core of the Republican voting base. Besides, she and McCain are polar opposites on almost every position there is.

Alan Keyes

Keyes is a failed politician. There's no more polite way to say that. In 1988, he won a lousy 38% of the vote while running for a Maryland Senate seat. He lost badly in the GOP primaries in 1996 and 2004 and then lost to (ironically) Barack Obama in the Illinois Senate race, winning a whoppingly low 27%. He lost the GOP primary in 2008 without a single electoral vote. And he couldn't even win the Constitution Party candidacy (last year, they only had 140,000 votes). That alone should be enough to prove to John McCain that Alan Keyes is not the right man for the job.

Ron Paul

Sure, Ron Paul did amazingly well for a libertarian candidate who had once run as a Libertarian Party candidate twenty years ago. And sure, he was an amazing voice in the wilderness who probably changed Republican politics forever. But let's face it. The guy looks to the average voter like a nutcrack. And he's a horrible campaigner, having only won 45 electoral votes. Finally, he's the strongest anti-war candidate in the primary, while McCain is arguably the strongest pro-war candidate. The only reason that he would be remotely useful is that he'd bring in a few libertarians. But come on. He's got no chance. He was there to make a statement and grab attention. He did that very well. But he's not vice presidential fodder.

Not even in the ballpark

Barack Obama

Because you know someone out there probably thinks this is a good idea.

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Loving John McCain

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